Subproject 2: Epidemiological Models

In SP2, we are developing a modular open-source simulation tool. With this software, simultaneous outbreaks of several infectious diseases such as SARS-CoV-2 can be simulated. Furthermore, interactions and cross-immunities will be considered using representations of different pathogens. In the model, the spatial spread of pathogens is also to be represented in order to depict the dynamics of the infection process.
The complex simulation tool will also be able to capture actual infection events. Until now, forecasts on the spread of pathogens were heavily dependent on the feedback of documented infections. Since tests were often only carried out when symptoms occurred, virus carriers without disease symptoms were often not recorded, even though they contribute to the infection incidence. Therefore, we will use data from various sources for modelling the occurrence of infections. The evaluation will initially focus on the city of Munich, for which we have official case numbers, our own study data, data from social media and wastewater sample measurements.
The simulation model will be part of the INSIDe platform (SP1) to facilitate integration with other model components, in particular the virus particle dispersion models in wastewater (SPs 3 and 4).

Contact: Dr. Martin Kühn, Martin.Kuehn@dlr.de